BJBR vs BJTM! -what an interesting dividend play-

Terkait penurunan 2 BPD which is BJBR and BJTM akhir2 ini yang cukup heboh pasca dividen besar yang baru saja dibagikan..   BJTM turun dari 498 ke 430 (-13%) BJBR jauh lebih parah 1175 ke 860 (-27%)
Penulis jadi tergoda untuk melihat dan menganalisisnya.
Ok here we go!!

BJBR - a king BPD that is badly wounded.

BJBR ibarat jatuh dari tangga (ex date dividend) , ketimpa tangganya (laporan keuangan Q1 2014 jelek), lalu kejatuhan pohon kelapa (tiga direktur BJB dipecat termasuk dirut utamanya karena tidak lulus fit and proper test)...
Ga heran investor menghukum saham bank ini gila-gilaan..
dari titik tertinggi di 7 april 2014 Rp 1175 penutupan Jumat tgl 23 mei 2014 di Rp 860 (udah turun 27%!!!) padahal dividennya hanya Rp 78

okay
let's dig deeper


Jika kita berpikir jernih..
BJB ditinggal oleh 3 direkturnya sekaligus.. apakah businessnya akan hancur seketika?
Menurut penulis : yap.. jelas ada sedikit gangguan.. tapi saya pikir tidak akan menghancurkan business secara drastis. A little bit distract yes.. but not gonna tear down BJB as a whole. 


NUMBERS AND GROWTH

in short here's key point why BJB LK jelek 

interest expense yang tinggi disebabkan karena meningkatkan porsi "time deposit" secara substansial (lihat gambar deposit breakdown)

NPL meningkat drastis disebabkan karena loans micro dan loans commercial yang menyumbang persentase NPL yang tinggi.

VALUATION
DDM
Asumsi :
Dividen 2014 = 78 perak (DPR around 55%)
Dividen 2015 = 78 perak (asumsi laba bersih 2014 = laba bersih 2013)
Growth (g) = 10%
Expected return (k)  = 17.5% (karena BPD saya kasi premi 10% di atas BI rate)

Perhitungan menggunakan gordon growth model karena BJBR sebagai bank BPD selalu membagikan dividen dengan persentase yang sangat tinggi.

V = D2015 / (k-g)
V = 78 / (0.17.5-0.10)
V = 1040

Current price 24 may 2014 = 860
Lumayan ada 17 % discount dari fair price :)
dan bila dibeli di harga 860 kemungkinan dalam 1 tahun mendatang anda akan mendapatkan dividend yield sekitar 9% (78/860) --> lumayan kan daripada taruh di bank atau bahkan membeli SBR yang lagi ramai akhir2 ini.. (noted : ini tidak menghitung "potensi kenaikan harga dari saham BJBR")

Best buy 800-850 (kalo dapet di bawah 800 lets say 760 ato 720 akan lebih baik) :)
TP 1040-1175 (lumayan jelek2 dapet 20% selama 1 taun, if investment works well bisa dapet almost 40%)


BJTM - an interesting dividend play

Komisaris utama : Muljanto

Direktur utama : Hadi Sukrianto

NUMBERS AND GROWTH

total asset bertumbuh 8% GOOD!

Loan growth 20% GOOD!

Third party Fund growth 10% (ada penurunan dikit di Current account tp masi acceptable) GOOD!

Equitas bertumbuh 6% (dividen besar tp ekuitas ttp tumbuh walopun ga double digit) GOOD!

net interest income growth  30% AWESOME!!

Net profit jumped 43% AWESOME!!

ROA ROE a very good one!

NIM terjaga di level 7% OK!

LDR 80% OK!

BOPO menurun dan di lvl 60% AWESOME!

CAR 22% OK!

ga perlu di described udah keliatan AWESOME!!

Balance sheet Healthy.. 
Income statement awesome (as per Q1 2014)...

VALUATION
DDM
Asumsi :
Dividen 2014 = 40.61 perak (DPR around 70%)
Dividen 2015 = 47 perak (asumsi laba bersih 2014 1trilyun EPS2014 67 perak)
Growth (g) = 10%
Expected return (k)  = 17.5% (karena BPD saya kasi premi 10% di atas BI rate)

Perhitungan menggunakan gordon growth model karena BJTM sebagai bank BPD selalu membagikan dividen dengan persentase yang sangat tinggi.

V = D2015 / (k-g)
V = 47 / (0.17.5-0.10)
V = 627

Current price 24 may 2014 = 430
Lumayan ada 31% discount dari fair price :)
dan bila dibeli di harga 430 kemungkinan dalam 1 tahun mendatang anda akan mendapatkan dividend yield sekitar 11.6% (50/430) --> lumayan kan daripada taruh di bank atau bahkan membeli SBR yang lagi ramai akhir2 ini.. (noted : ini tidak menghitung "potensi kenaikan harga dari saham BJTM")

Best buy 400-420 (kalo dapet di bawah 400 lets say 350 ato 300 JACKPOT!!)
TP 500-627 (lumayan jelek2 dapet 20% selama 1 taun, if investment works well bisa dapet 50%)

Final comment :

Kalo banknya termasuk kategori BPD emang kayanya rentan ama yang namanya masalah "KKN" , maka sometimes emang pantes jg dihargain lebih murah dari bank umum / bank swasta soalnya investor jadi "worry" untuk masalah transparansi di dalam perusahannya.

Namun penulis pikir "potensi" dividen BJTM dan BJBR sangat sayang nih untuk dilewatkan dan dibiarkan lewat begitu saja mumpung kedua saham ini lagi didiskon oleh market :)

So which one better to invest BJBR? BJTM?

Untuk sekarang ini jelas BJTM jauh lebih menarik secara valuasi daripada BJBR.

Namun apabila kita compare secara business, BJBR sudah jauh lebih mapan dan lebih besar daripada BJTM.

(motto BJB : bigger, stronger, better)

BJTM fokus di daerah Jawa Timur saja, namun BJBR sudah ada di mana-mana

dan sekarang BJBR lagi kena masalah.. apabila Q2 atau di semester 2 BJB berhasil memperbaiki kinerja bukan tidak mungkin valuasi BJBR akan meningkat dan potensi imbal hasil pun akan lebih besar dari BJTM.

so... the answer lies in you.. but in my view both are worth to be considered as an investment vehicle.

Stay tuned and stay rational
Subscribe this blog and spread it if u find useful.
Shendy Lukito

Shendy Lukito

SAHAM101.COM

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MBSS updates 27/04/2014

MBSS .. terlalu menggoda untuk dilewatkan.. !!

Price as of 27/4 2014 Rp 1010

Fair Value Rp 1973

reflecting forward PE2014 7.17x

OUTPERFORM!

pros : management sangat jelas memaparkan kondisi-kondisi yang terjadi di lapangan dan tindakan-tindakan yang bakal diambil untuk di tahun 2014, di antaranya meluaskan "wilayah operasional" , diversifikasi usaha ke barang non curah lain (bauksit , pipa untuk migas) , efisiensi, persiapan untuk pengangkutan CNG di 2014. Target managemen yang rational which is hanya sedikit di atas pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia 7%.

cons : masih buruknya kondisi industri batubara.

Wajib dibaca LK MBSS 2013 (10MB),  bisa di download di sini

Dahulu penulis pernah membahas MBSS secara lengkap di sini

http://www.saham101.com/2013/09/mbss-black-pearl-sails-in-indonesian-sea.html

Important Notes :  ada kemungkinan dividen cukup besar di tahun ini mengingat MBSS cukup rajin untuk membagi dividen sekitar 25% dari laba, which is approximately around 60 perak :)

Stay tuned and stay rational
Subscribe this blog and spread it if u find useful.
Shendy Lukito

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MFIN update 27/4/2014

MFIN updates valuation

Price as of 27/4 2014 Rp 750

Fair Value Rp 1539

reflecting forward PE2014 7.17x

OUTPERFORM!

Dahulu penulis pernah membahas MFIN secara lengkap MFIN di sini..

http://www.saham101.com/2013/07/mandala-multifinance-mfin-big-sparkling.html

Stay tuned and stay rational
Subscribe this blog and spread it if u find useful.
Shendy Lukito

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Treat a stock like your BUSINESS!!

“I am a better investor because I am a businessman and a better businessman because I am an investor.”- Warren Buffet

Petuah terkenal ini pastinya anda sering denger ya.
Ok tapi apa artinya sih dibalik kata-kata ini?

"Ngapain sih Pak Shen perhatiin saham kaya business.. yang penting sahamnya naik/ percuma aja bisnisnya bagus tapi sahamnya ga naek-naek.... itu aja yang penting buat saya." ---->> banyak yang bilang kepada saya seperti ini..



Ok..

Lets say Anda adalah sebuah pedagang kain di sebuah pasar traditional.
Dan kita asumsikan seperti ini :

Harga sebuah toko 20m2 adalah 2Milyard
Masa berlaku sebuah toko adalah 10 tahun.

Omzet sebuah toko kain pada umumnya adalah 200 juta/bulan
kita anggap omzet satu tahun = 2 Milyard  (kenapa? soalnya ada bulan sepi kalo puasa dan seudah lebaran pasti deh sepi kalau pedagang kain jadi kita anggap efektif berdagang dalam 1 tahun adalah 10 bulan) (kenapa saya tahu? karena saya adalah pedagang kain... :D)

Margin bersih = 20%

Net profit anda sudah bisa dihitung donk = 400 juta/tahun (20% x 2 Milyard)

Nah kalau begitu  selama kita membeli toko tersebut dan memakainya dalam 10 tahun kita akan mendapatkan uang sebesar 4Milyard dengan investasi 2 Milyard dalam kurun waktu 10 tahun.


Sampai sini nangkap ya?

Kita tes (asumsi tingkat bunga bank nett sudah pajak 10%) :
1) Jika saya tawarkan kepada Anda toko saya hari ini 20m2 seharga 4 milyard untuk kepemilikan selama 10 taun .. apakah anda mau membelinya?
Jawab : Jelas tidak.. karena adalah bodoh membeli 4 milyar hari ini dan akan mendapat 4 milyar pada taun ke -10 (hasilnya akan sama seperti uang anda taruh di bawah bantal)

2) Jika saya tawarkan kepada Anda toko saya hari ini 20m2 seharga 2 milyard untuk kepemilikan 10 taun... apakah anda tertarik?
Jawab : Tetap tidak.. Mengapa?
Apabila kita investasi di bank senilai 2 milyar saat ini (tingkat bunga 10% p.a) maka investasi kita akan berkembang menjadi sekitar 5.2 milyar
Untuk apa kita berinvestasi di asset yang lebih berbahaya dan tingkat imbal hasilnya lebih kecil.

3) Kira-kira pada harga berapa anda mau membelinya?
Jawab : Harga yang pantas adalah apabila tingkat imbal hasil yang ditawarkan lebih besar daripada investasi di bank. Misal kita mengharapkan imbal hasil 15%, maka harga yang pantas adalah sekitar 1 Milyar (tepatnya 988jt). 

nb : asumsi di atas tidak memperhitungkan growth untuk mempermudah perhitungan.

Stay tuned and stay rational..

Subscribe this blog and spread it if u find useful.

Shendy lukito

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The Top 17 Investing Quotes of All Time

(source : http://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0511/the-top-17-investing-quotes-of-all-time.aspx)

1. "An investment in knowledge pays the best interest." - Benjamin Franklin
When it comes to investing, nothing will pay off more than educating yourself. Do the necessary research, study and analysis before making any investment decisions.

2. "Bottoms in the investment world don't end with four-year lows; they end with 10- or 15-year lows." - Jim Rogers
While 10-15 year lows are not common, they do happen. During these down times, don't be shy about going against the trend and investing; you could make a fortune by making a bold move - or lose your shirt. Remember quote #1 and invest in an industry you've researched thoroughly. Then, be prepared to see your investment sink lower before it turns around and starts to pay off.

3. "I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett
Be prepared to invest in a down market and to "get out" in a soaring market. (For more, read Think Like Warren Buffett.)

4. "The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing." - Phillip Fisher
Another testament to the fact that investing without an education and research will ultimately lead to regrettable investment decisions. Research is much more than just listening to popular opinion.

5. "In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable." - Robert Arnott
At times, you will have to step out of your comfort zone to realize significant gains. Know the boundaries of your comfort zone and practice stepping out of it in small doses. As much as you need to know the market, you need to know yourself too. Can you handle staying in when everyone else is jumping ship? Or getting out during the biggest rally of the century? There's no room for pride in this kind of self-analysis. The best investment strategy can turn into the worst if you don't have the stomach to see it through.

6. "How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case." - Robert G. Allen
Though investing in a savings account is a sure bet, your gains will be minimal given the extremely low interest rates. But don't forgo one completely. A savings account is a reliable place for an emergency fund, whereas a market investment is not. (To learn more, see Savings Accounts Not Always The Best Place For Cash Assets.)

7. "Invest in yourself. Your career is the engine of your wealth." - Paul Clitheroe
We all want wealth, but how do we achieve it? It starts with a successful career which relies on your skills and talents. Invest in yourself through school, books, or a quality job where you can acquire a quality skill set. Identify your talents and find a way to turn them into an income-generating vehicle. In doing so, you can truly leverage your career into an "engine of your wealth."

8. "Every once in a while, the market does something so stupid it takes your breath away." - Jim Cramer
There are no sure bets in the world of investing; there is risk in everything. Be prepared for the ups and downs. (To read more on how Cramer makes his pick, see Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap: Tools of the Trade.) 

9. "The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator." - Ben Graham
You are an investor, not someone who can predict the future. Base your decisions on real facts and analysis rather than risky, speculative forecasts.

10. "It's not how much money you make, but how much money you keep, how hard it works for you, and how many generations you keep it for." - Robert Kiyosaki
If you're a millionaire by the time you're 30, but blow it all by age 40, you've gained nothing. Grow and protect your investment portfolio by carefully diversifying it, and you may find yourself funding many generations to come.

11. "Know what you own, and know why you own it." - Peter Lynch
Do your homework before making a decision. And once you've made a decision, make sure to re-evaluate your portfolio on a timely basis. A wise holding today may not be a wise holding in the future.

12. "Financial peace isn't the acquisition of stuff. It's learning to live on less than you make, so you can give money back and have money to invest. You can't win until you do this." - Dave Ramsey
By being modest in your spending, you can ensure you will have enough for retirement and can give back to the community as well.

13. "Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas." - Paul Samuelson
If you think investing is gambling, you're doing it wrong. The work involved requires planning and patience. However, the gains you see over time are indeed exciting! (For more reasons to be patient, check out Patience Is A Trader's Virtue.)

14. "I would not pre-pay. I would invest instead and let the investments cover it." - Dave Ramsey
A perfect answer to the question: "Should I pay off my _____(fill in the blank) or invest for retirement?" That said, a credit card balance ringing up 30% can turn into a black hole if not paid off quickly. Basically, pay off debt at high interest rates and keep debt at low ones.

15. "The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'this time it's different.'" - Sir John Templeton
Follow market trends and history. Don't speculate that this particular time will be any different. For example, a major key to investing in a particular stock or bond fund is its performance over five years. Nothing shorter.

16. "Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing." - Warren Buffett
In the beginning, diversification is relevant. Once you've gotten your feet wet and have confidence in your investments, you can adjust your portfolio accordingly and make bigger bets. (For more reason to reduce your diversification, read The Dangers Of Over-Diversifying Your Portfolio.)

17. "You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don't understand that's going to happen, then you're not ready, you won't do well in the markets." - Peter Lynch
When hit with recessions or declines, you must stay the course. Economies are cyclical, and the markets have shown that they will recover. Make sure you are a part of those recoveries!

The Bottom Line
The world of investing can be cold and hard. But if you do thorough research and keep your head on straight, your chances of long-term success are good. Refer back to these quotes when you're feeling shaky or are confused about investing. How are they relevant to your experience? Do you have any favorite quotes to add? (To learn more from great investors, read Greatest Investors.)

(source: http://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0511/the-top-17-investing-quotes-of-all-time.aspx) 

Quotes number 1,3, 4, 11, 13, 16 are my favourites

notes : Sori penulis udah 2-3 bulan off nih.. 
Penulis akan berusaha untuk UPDATE blog ini minimal 4x dalam 1 bulan

Stay tuned and stay rational..

Subscribe this blog and spread it if u find useful.

Shendy lukito

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LPCK short notes

LPCK short updates based on LK 2013 

Current landbank 670 ha consist of  
291 ha residential @5jt/m2 
379ha industrial @2jt/m2 
Plot ratio 60% 
Shares outstanding 696jt dibuletin 700jt  

Quick NAV -> Rp18.968 / shares
Fair value 30% disc -> Rp 13.278/shares reflecting PE15x PBV5x FY2013  

Shendy Lukito 
Saham101.com

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I WILL PUBLISH A BOOK in 2014

dear readers,

thx's for coming to my blog
This year 2014 i will fulfill one of my dreams , which is WRITING and PUBLISHING a BOOK!

for that reason i need your blessing... and also.. i want to know..

1) Apa sih buku yang kalian butuhkan untuk belajar saham?
2) What topic is interesting for you guys?
3) Apa sih yang kalian suka dari saham101?

komentar anda sangat dibutuhkan untuk membantu untuk meningkatkan kualitas buku dan juga website saham101.com

nb:
penulis bakal berusaha untuk update artikel di saham101 sesering penulis..
dan juga penulis aktif di website www.stockbit.com
Anda dapat melihat tulisan penulis di sana dan don't forget to follow :)

thx's guys

stay tuned and stay rational
Shendy Lukito

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