INVEST don't speculate

Investing is a sure way to win the games of stock market. But the success comes in taking one by one little steps of stair rather than riding an elevator.

GOLDEN RULES in stock investing

BE GREEDY WHEN OTHERS ARE FEARFUL, BE FEARFUL WHEN OTHERS ARE GREEDY!

PETER LYNCH

buy a good business

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Minggu, 20 April 2014

The Top 17 Investing Quotes of All Time

The Top 17 Investing Quotes of All Time

(source : http://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0511/the-top-17-investing-quotes-of-all-time.aspx)

1. "An investment in knowledge pays the best interest." - Benjamin Franklin
When it comes to investing, nothing will pay off more than educating yourself. Do the necessary research, study and analysis before making any investment decisions.

2. "Bottoms in the investment world don't end with four-year lows; they end with 10- or 15-year lows." - Jim Rogers
While 10-15 year lows are not common, they do happen. During these down times, don't be shy about going against the trend and investing; you could make a fortune by making a bold move - or lose your shirt. Remember quote #1 and invest in an industry you've researched thoroughly. Then, be prepared to see your investment sink lower before it turns around and starts to pay off.

3. "I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett
Be prepared to invest in a down market and to "get out" in a soaring market. (For more, read Think Like Warren Buffett.)

4. "The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing." - Phillip Fisher
Another testament to the fact that investing without an education and research will ultimately lead to regrettable investment decisions. Research is much more than just listening to popular opinion.

5. "In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable." - Robert Arnott
At times, you will have to step out of your comfort zone to realize significant gains. Know the boundaries of your comfort zone and practice stepping out of it in small doses. As much as you need to know the market, you need to know yourself too. Can you handle staying in when everyone else is jumping ship? Or getting out during the biggest rally of the century? There's no room for pride in this kind of self-analysis. The best investment strategy can turn into the worst if you don't have the stomach to see it through.

6. "How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case." - Robert G. Allen
Though investing in a savings account is a sure bet, your gains will be minimal given the extremely low interest rates. But don't forgo one completely. A savings account is a reliable place for an emergency fund, whereas a market investment is not. (To learn more, see Savings Accounts Not Always The Best Place For Cash Assets.)

7. "Invest in yourself. Your career is the engine of your wealth." - Paul Clitheroe
We all want wealth, but how do we achieve it? It starts with a successful career which relies on your skills and talents. Invest in yourself through school, books, or a quality job where you can acquire a quality skill set. Identify your talents and find a way to turn them into an income-generating vehicle. In doing so, you can truly leverage your career into an "engine of your wealth."

8. "Every once in a while, the market does something so stupid it takes your breath away." - Jim Cramer
There are no sure bets in the world of investing; there is risk in everything. Be prepared for the ups and downs. (To read more on how Cramer makes his pick, see Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap: Tools of the Trade.) 

9. "The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator." - Ben Graham
You are an investor, not someone who can predict the future. Base your decisions on real facts and analysis rather than risky, speculative forecasts.

10. "It's not how much money you make, but how much money you keep, how hard it works for you, and how many generations you keep it for." - Robert Kiyosaki
If you're a millionaire by the time you're 30, but blow it all by age 40, you've gained nothing. Grow and protect your investment portfolio by carefully diversifying it, and you may find yourself funding many generations to come.

11. "Know what you own, and know why you own it." - Peter Lynch
Do your homework before making a decision. And once you've made a decision, make sure to re-evaluate your portfolio on a timely basis. A wise holding today may not be a wise holding in the future.

12. "Financial peace isn't the acquisition of stuff. It's learning to live on less than you make, so you can give money back and have money to invest. You can't win until you do this." - Dave Ramsey
By being modest in your spending, you can ensure you will have enough for retirement and can give back to the community as well.

13. "Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas." - Paul Samuelson
If you think investing is gambling, you're doing it wrong. The work involved requires planning and patience. However, the gains you see over time are indeed exciting! (For more reasons to be patient, check out Patience Is A Trader's Virtue.)

14. "I would not pre-pay. I would invest instead and let the investments cover it." - Dave Ramsey
A perfect answer to the question: "Should I pay off my _____(fill in the blank) or invest for retirement?" That said, a credit card balance ringing up 30% can turn into a black hole if not paid off quickly. Basically, pay off debt at high interest rates and keep debt at low ones.

15. "The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'this time it's different.'" - Sir John Templeton
Follow market trends and history. Don't speculate that this particular time will be any different. For example, a major key to investing in a particular stock or bond fund is its performance over five years. Nothing shorter.

16. "Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing." - Warren Buffett
In the beginning, diversification is relevant. Once you've gotten your feet wet and have confidence in your investments, you can adjust your portfolio accordingly and make bigger bets. (For more reason to reduce your diversification, read The Dangers Of Over-Diversifying Your Portfolio.)

17. "You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don't understand that's going to happen, then you're not ready, you won't do well in the markets." - Peter Lynch
When hit with recessions or declines, you must stay the course. Economies are cyclical, and the markets have shown that they will recover. Make sure you are a part of those recoveries!

The Bottom Line
The world of investing can be cold and hard. But if you do thorough research and keep your head on straight, your chances of long-term success are good. Refer back to these quotes when you're feeling shaky or are confused about investing. How are they relevant to your experience? Do you have any favorite quotes to add? (To learn more from great investors, read Greatest Investors.)

(source: http://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0511/the-top-17-investing-quotes-of-all-time.aspx) 

Quotes number 1,3, 4, 11, 13, 16 are my favourites

notes : Sori penulis udah 2-3 bulan off nih.. 
Penulis akan berusaha untuk UPDATE blog ini minimal 4x dalam 1 bulan

Stay tuned and stay rational..
Subscribe this blog and spread it if u find useful.
Shendy lukito

Kamis, 10 April 2014

LPCK short notes

LPCK short updates based on LK 2013 

Current landbank 670 ha consist of  
291 ha residential @5jt/m2 
379ha industrial @2jt/m2 
Plot ratio 60% 
Shares outstanding 696jt dibuletin 700jt  

Quick NAV -> Rp18.968 / shares
Fair value 30% disc -> Rp 13.278/shares reflecting PE15x PBV5x FY2013  

Shendy Lukito 
Saham101.com

Sabtu, 15 Maret 2014

I WILL PUBLISH A BOOK in 2014

dear readers,

thx's for coming to my blog
This year 2014 i will fulfill one of my dreams , which is WRITING and PUBLISHING a BOOK!

for that reason i need your blessing... and also.. i want to know..

1) Apa sih buku yang kalian butuhkan untuk belajar saham?
2) What topic is interesting for you guys?
3) Apa sih yang kalian suka dari saham101?

komentar anda sangat dibutuhkan untuk membantu untuk meningkatkan kualitas buku dan juga website saham101.com

nb:
penulis bakal berusaha untuk update artikel di saham101 sesering penulis..
dan juga penulis aktif di website www.stockbit.com
Anda dapat melihat tulisan penulis di sana dan don't forget to follow :)

thx's guys

stay tuned and stay rational
Shendy Lukito

Selasa, 25 Februari 2014

Mengenal Value investing

It is difficult to be optimistic in recessionary times. 
However "When investing, pessimism is your friend, euphoria the enemy
(taken from Books "Buffett Beyond value - Prem Jain")

Apa sih Value investing?
Mungkin ada baiknya penulis jelaskan dengan gambar/perumpamaan.

this illustration made by Yolanda Lesmana , see team member saham101.com


gambar di atas adalah
Contoh value investing yang simple dalam kehidupan sehari2 :

KONSEP 1 -->  Luna Panu case
Apabila kita masuk kuliah, dan apabila kita single, tentu kita akan melihat lihat banyak sekali wanita cantik di kampus (saham2 baik  di BEI)

Nah sayangnya kebanyakan para wanita cantik (saham2 baik) ini diperebutkan bukan hanya oleh kita (investor), namun banyak orang (Fund manager, investor besar, dana pensiun, dll) yang memperebutkan wanita cantik ini.. sehingga seringkali wanita ini secara sengaja atau tidak sengaja ter-JUAL MAHAL (misalnya PE 40x) Dan juga seringkali wanita cantik ini sudah punya pasangan.

Nah apa hubungannya sama VALUE INVESTING ?
Value investing sama seperti kita mengincar wanita cantik..

Kita tunggu sampai wanita cantik ini (didiskon) alias misal baru putus ama pacarnya ato ga si wanita ini kena penyakit "panu" terus tiba2 diputusin ama pacarnya karena pacarnya alergi "panu"..
(temporary problem dengan sahamnya/ bursa jatuh)

Nah di sinilah kita akan masuk dan mendekati wanita ini.. (BUY)
Inilah konsep sederhana dari value investing 


KONSEP 2 --> Betty la Fonte case

Pernah nonton Betty La Fonte (betty la Fea yang bener hehe)?
Wanita yang pada aslinya cantik sekali.. namun terlihat jelek dan tidak disukai oleh orang2 sekitar karena penampilannya jelek sekali.. rambut di bob tidak diurus pake kacamata jelek dan juga gigit dikawat, wahh pokonya jelek sekali.. haha..

Namun ada pria (investor) yang menyadari bahwa sebenernya si Betty (emiten ber FA ciamik) ini cantik dan sedikit demi sedikit Betty (Laporan keuangan mulai membaik) pun merubah penampilan dan sekitar dia (investor lain, fund manager, dana pensiun, etc) mulai mengetahui kalau Betty ini cantik :D

Ketika kita jadi pria yang menyadari Betty ketika masi jelek dan menjadikan betty pasangan , kita telah melakukan value investing (LOL)

Apabila Anda mengerti perumpamaan di atas.. 
Selamat!! Berarti anda secara tidak langsung sudah mengerti esensi dari value investing.

Nah prinsip yang sama dapat kita terapkan dalam membeli sebuah saham.
Mencari saham-saham yang baik
Menunggu harganya didiskon dengan besar
Membeli ketika semua orang tidak menginginkan
Menjual ketika semua orang mengiginkan

Namun memang setelah membeli saham baik dengan diskon yang besar , tidak selalunya dalam waktu dekat (kurang dari 1 tahun) harganya akan berkembang 50-100% atau lebih..
Terkadang butuh beberapa tahun sampai pasar menghargai saham tersebut dengan baik.
Terkadang kurang dari setahun pun pasar sudah menghargai saham tersebut dengan baik.

Well .. ini hanya kulit luar dari intisari investasi yang membuat Warren Buffet menjadi orang  no 1 di dunia. "VALUE INVESTING"

Tidak ada cara instant untuk menjadi kaya, tidak ada cara mudah juga untuk memahami "value investing" PERLU WAKTU , PERLU PEMAHAMAN dan DIPERLUKAN MENTAL yang kuat dalam menjalankan "value investing" karena Anda akan menjadi seperti bebek ungu (bebek yang berbeda dari bebek pada umumnya)

Penulis telah menuliskan step by step yang harus dilakukan dalam mencari "saham mutiara". Dapat dibaca di  sini :

4 puzzle guidelines of Value investing!!
Just when u like and know the 


BUY!


last but not least..
the untold true story of the writer saham101 (haelahh) :D

saya selain sebagai investor
saya adalah seorang pedagang di sebuah pasar..

dahulu kios pertama kali dipasarkan 40jt/m2 di tahun 2002.
setelah berjalan 3-5 tahun.. pasar tak kunjung ramai..
developer pun terpaksa menurunkan harga jual mereka..
sampai2 hanya belasan juta rupiah saja/m2..

ga ada yang berani beli pada saat itu..

waktu berlalu..
Lambat laun ada pedagang besar yang mulai berani membeli kios-kios murah tersebut karena mencium adanya peluang.. dan tak lama pun seluruh kios habis terjual.
Dan waktu pun berlalu 5 tahun kemudian pada saat ini 2013.. kios di pasar tersebut sudah bernilai 100jt/m2.. dan itu pun susah barang, jika kita berandai2, kita membeli pada saat orang beramai2 beli.. sudah tentulah return kita tidak akan spektakuler :)

notes :
untung orang tua saya entah ada keberanian ato kebijaksanaan apa membeli pada saat harga kisaran belasan juta tersebut :)

return tidak spektakuler bagaimana sih..
namun cukup memberi saya dan anak2nya pelajaran berharga.
#value investing#

Stay tuned and stay rational..
Subscribe this blog and spread it if u find useful.
Shendy lukito


Sabtu, 15 Februari 2014

STEPHEN COVEY SAID : FIRST THING FIRST!!!!

STEPHEN COVEY SAID : FIRST THING FIRST!!!!

Cerita ini pasti udah banyak yang tau ya.. karya buku First Thing First nya Stephen Covey
Tapi saya bacanya sih dari bukunya "business and beyond karya founder TDA Pak Rony"  
(It's truly a nice book.. )

OK to refreshen a bit.. ceritanya seperti ini :
Ada sebuah akuarium yang disekitarnya teronggok batu berukuran sekepalan tangan, kerikil, dan pasir.

Batu besar menggambarkan hal-hal yang sangat penting dalam hidup kita: keluarga, kesehatan dan Tuhan.

Kerikil Menggambarkan hal-hal penting, tapi di bawah batu besar, seperti rumah dan pekerjaan.

Pasir menggambarkan hal-hal yang tidak penting dalam hidup tapi sering menyedot energi kita seperti benda-benda materi yang kita miliki, segala remeh-remeh tidak penting.

Jika kita lebih dulu memasukkan semua pasir ke dalam akuarium , niscaya tidak ada lagi tempat untuk batu dan kerikil. Namun, jika kita masukkan batu besar dulu, kemudian kerikil dan terakhir pasir yang akan mengisi sela-selanya pasti semuanya akan tertampung dengan pas.

Begitulah hidup. Jangan sampai energi kita habis untuk urusan "pasir" ketimbang "batu" dan kerikil". Jangan pula kerikil mengalahkan batu.


Well apa hubungannya dengan saham? Web SAHAM101 ini kan tentang saham..
Oppss.. allright ..

Here's the red dot...

Dalam kita menganalisis sebuah saham.. Faktor apa saja sih yang harus dianalisis?
1) Fundamental analysis
2) Technical analysis
3) Bandarmology !?
4) sentimen pasar..
5) dow ijo ato merah..
6) eido ijo ato merah...
etc... etc...

Untuk Penulis karena penulis beraliran 95% FA 5% TA, penulis asumsikan demikian :
Batu Besar = Fundamental analysis
Kerikil = Technical analysis
Pasir = Bandarmology, sentimen pasar, dow ijo ato merah.., whatever...

Nb: bila anda trader , anda pun tentu harus menentukan mana yang utama dalam hidup anda :)

I think all u guys know what i'm thinking right..

First thing first, kata Covey. Utamakan yang utama.
Apakah anda sudah men"UTAMA"kan yang UTAMA??


WHAT'S YOUR BIG ROCK !??

Stay tuned and stay rational..
Subscribe this blog and spread it if u find useful.
Shendy lukito


Sabtu, 01 Februari 2014

Ini lho alasan mengapa harga saham coal turun dari 2011-2013



Penulis lagi suka commodity sector akhir2 ini (kebeneran lagi perhatiin coal)...

Kenapa pak? 
Karena lagi pada demam emitennya (alias harga sahamnya lagi turun sangat dalam)
Dan juga lagi diterpa gosip miring terus, di antaranya :

  • harga coal kurang baik akibat oversupply..
  • batesan quota produksi indonesia..
  • isu royalti naek
  • china coal ban impor on low calory coal
  • shale gas
  • greenpeace
  • etc.. etc..

Seperti ga ada habis-habisnya berita miring tentang coal..

ok.. so apakah berita miring tersebut benar adanya.. 
Mari kita take a look deeper into coal companies.. 
Samplenya kita tetep pake 5 emiten : PTBA , KKGI, ADRO, ITMG, HRUM 
seperti artikel sebelumnya.

PTBA 

KKGI

ADRO
HRUM

ITMG













Yep.. ternyata gosip miring tersebut rupanya benar adanya..
tercermin dari laporan keuangan perusahaan-perusahaan batubara di atas.
Sales naik tipis, eps turun

So mungkin ada beberapa diantara kalian yang bertanya.. 
"Eh gila kenapa ye saham-saham batubara gw turun terus?"

Karena bandar? Karena asing keluar? 
Menurut penulis sih karena emang hasil rapor mereka jelek. Itu aja.

Ok.. so now we know the problem..

Lalu gimana donk pak shen?
Apakah future outlook dari coal companies sudah tidak menjanjikan?

nanti kita bahas lagi deh on next article.. 
but i would like to have your view on coal sectors.. 
please leave your comment.. thx's

Stay tuned and stay rational..
Subscribe this blog and spread it if u find useful.
Shendy lukito

Sabtu, 25 Januari 2014

BLACK GOLD COMPANIES comparison..

COAL COMPARISON (source IPOT : 23 jan 2014 as per 9M 2013)

Source : IPOT 23 jan 2014
Simple screener... Kalo menurut screener IPOT berikut rankingnya :

  1. KKGI
  2. PTBA
  3. HRUM
  4. ADRO
  5. ITMG
deep analysis will follow..

Stay tuned and stay rational..
Subscribe this blog and spread it if u find useful.
Shendy lukito