MBSS updates 27/04/2014

MBSS .. terlalu menggoda untuk dilewatkan.. !!

Price as of 27/4 2014 Rp 1010

Fair Value Rp 1973

reflecting forward PE2014 7.17x

OUTPERFORM!

pros : management sangat jelas memaparkan kondisi-kondisi yang terjadi di lapangan dan tindakan-tindakan yang bakal diambil untuk di tahun 2014, di antaranya meluaskan "wilayah operasional" , diversifikasi usaha ke barang non curah lain (bauksit , pipa untuk migas) , efisiensi, persiapan untuk pengangkutan CNG di 2014. Target managemen yang rational which is hanya sedikit di atas pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia 7%.

cons : masih buruknya kondisi industri batubara.

Wajib dibaca LK MBSS 2013 (10MB),  bisa di download di sini

Dahulu penulis pernah membahas MBSS secara lengkap di sini

http://www.saham101.com/2013/09/mbss-black-pearl-sails-in-indonesian-sea.html

Important Notes :  ada kemungkinan dividen cukup besar di tahun ini mengingat MBSS cukup rajin untuk membagi dividen sekitar 25% dari laba, which is approximately around 60 perak :)

Stay tuned and stay rational
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Shendy Lukito

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MFIN update 27/4/2014

MFIN updates valuation

Price as of 27/4 2014 Rp 750

Fair Value Rp 1539

reflecting forward PE2014 7.17x

OUTPERFORM!

Dahulu penulis pernah membahas MFIN secara lengkap MFIN di sini..

http://www.saham101.com/2013/07/mandala-multifinance-mfin-big-sparkling.html

Stay tuned and stay rational
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Shendy Lukito

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Treat a stock like your BUSINESS!!

“I am a better investor because I am a businessman and a better businessman because I am an investor.”- Warren Buffet

Petuah terkenal ini pastinya anda sering denger ya.
Ok tapi apa artinya sih dibalik kata-kata ini?

"Ngapain sih Pak Shen perhatiin saham kaya business.. yang penting sahamnya naik/ percuma aja bisnisnya bagus tapi sahamnya ga naek-naek.... itu aja yang penting buat saya." ---->> banyak yang bilang kepada saya seperti ini..



Ok..

Lets say Anda adalah sebuah pedagang kain di sebuah pasar traditional.
Dan kita asumsikan seperti ini :

Harga sebuah toko 20m2 adalah 2Milyard
Masa berlaku sebuah toko adalah 10 tahun.

Omzet sebuah toko kain pada umumnya adalah 200 juta/bulan
kita anggap omzet satu tahun = 2 Milyard  (kenapa? soalnya ada bulan sepi kalo puasa dan seudah lebaran pasti deh sepi kalau pedagang kain jadi kita anggap efektif berdagang dalam 1 tahun adalah 10 bulan) (kenapa saya tahu? karena saya adalah pedagang kain... :D)

Margin bersih = 20%

Net profit anda sudah bisa dihitung donk = 400 juta/tahun (20% x 2 Milyard)

Nah kalau begitu  selama kita membeli toko tersebut dan memakainya dalam 10 tahun kita akan mendapatkan uang sebesar 4Milyard dengan investasi 2 Milyard dalam kurun waktu 10 tahun.


Sampai sini nangkap ya?

Kita tes (asumsi tingkat bunga bank nett sudah pajak 10%) :
1) Jika saya tawarkan kepada Anda toko saya hari ini 20m2 seharga 4 milyard untuk kepemilikan selama 10 taun .. apakah anda mau membelinya?
Jawab : Jelas tidak.. karena adalah bodoh membeli 4 milyar hari ini dan akan mendapat 4 milyar pada taun ke -10 (hasilnya akan sama seperti uang anda taruh di bawah bantal)

2) Jika saya tawarkan kepada Anda toko saya hari ini 20m2 seharga 2 milyard untuk kepemilikan 10 taun... apakah anda tertarik?
Jawab : Tetap tidak.. Mengapa?
Apabila kita investasi di bank senilai 2 milyar saat ini (tingkat bunga 10% p.a) maka investasi kita akan berkembang menjadi sekitar 5.2 milyar
Untuk apa kita berinvestasi di asset yang lebih berbahaya dan tingkat imbal hasilnya lebih kecil.

3) Kira-kira pada harga berapa anda mau membelinya?
Jawab : Harga yang pantas adalah apabila tingkat imbal hasil yang ditawarkan lebih besar daripada investasi di bank. Misal kita mengharapkan imbal hasil 15%, maka harga yang pantas adalah sekitar 1 Milyar (tepatnya 988jt). 

nb : asumsi di atas tidak memperhitungkan growth untuk mempermudah perhitungan.

Stay tuned and stay rational..

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Shendy lukito

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The Top 17 Investing Quotes of All Time

(source : http://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0511/the-top-17-investing-quotes-of-all-time.aspx)

1. "An investment in knowledge pays the best interest." - Benjamin Franklin
When it comes to investing, nothing will pay off more than educating yourself. Do the necessary research, study and analysis before making any investment decisions.

2. "Bottoms in the investment world don't end with four-year lows; they end with 10- or 15-year lows." - Jim Rogers
While 10-15 year lows are not common, they do happen. During these down times, don't be shy about going against the trend and investing; you could make a fortune by making a bold move - or lose your shirt. Remember quote #1 and invest in an industry you've researched thoroughly. Then, be prepared to see your investment sink lower before it turns around and starts to pay off.

3. "I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett
Be prepared to invest in a down market and to "get out" in a soaring market. (For more, read Think Like Warren Buffett.)

4. "The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing." - Phillip Fisher
Another testament to the fact that investing without an education and research will ultimately lead to regrettable investment decisions. Research is much more than just listening to popular opinion.

5. "In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable." - Robert Arnott
At times, you will have to step out of your comfort zone to realize significant gains. Know the boundaries of your comfort zone and practice stepping out of it in small doses. As much as you need to know the market, you need to know yourself too. Can you handle staying in when everyone else is jumping ship? Or getting out during the biggest rally of the century? There's no room for pride in this kind of self-analysis. The best investment strategy can turn into the worst if you don't have the stomach to see it through.

6. "How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case." - Robert G. Allen
Though investing in a savings account is a sure bet, your gains will be minimal given the extremely low interest rates. But don't forgo one completely. A savings account is a reliable place for an emergency fund, whereas a market investment is not. (To learn more, see Savings Accounts Not Always The Best Place For Cash Assets.)

7. "Invest in yourself. Your career is the engine of your wealth." - Paul Clitheroe
We all want wealth, but how do we achieve it? It starts with a successful career which relies on your skills and talents. Invest in yourself through school, books, or a quality job where you can acquire a quality skill set. Identify your talents and find a way to turn them into an income-generating vehicle. In doing so, you can truly leverage your career into an "engine of your wealth."

8. "Every once in a while, the market does something so stupid it takes your breath away." - Jim Cramer
There are no sure bets in the world of investing; there is risk in everything. Be prepared for the ups and downs. (To read more on how Cramer makes his pick, see Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap: Tools of the Trade.) 

9. "The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator." - Ben Graham
You are an investor, not someone who can predict the future. Base your decisions on real facts and analysis rather than risky, speculative forecasts.

10. "It's not how much money you make, but how much money you keep, how hard it works for you, and how many generations you keep it for." - Robert Kiyosaki
If you're a millionaire by the time you're 30, but blow it all by age 40, you've gained nothing. Grow and protect your investment portfolio by carefully diversifying it, and you may find yourself funding many generations to come.

11. "Know what you own, and know why you own it." - Peter Lynch
Do your homework before making a decision. And once you've made a decision, make sure to re-evaluate your portfolio on a timely basis. A wise holding today may not be a wise holding in the future.

12. "Financial peace isn't the acquisition of stuff. It's learning to live on less than you make, so you can give money back and have money to invest. You can't win until you do this." - Dave Ramsey
By being modest in your spending, you can ensure you will have enough for retirement and can give back to the community as well.

13. "Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas." - Paul Samuelson
If you think investing is gambling, you're doing it wrong. The work involved requires planning and patience. However, the gains you see over time are indeed exciting! (For more reasons to be patient, check out Patience Is A Trader's Virtue.)

14. "I would not pre-pay. I would invest instead and let the investments cover it." - Dave Ramsey
A perfect answer to the question: "Should I pay off my _____(fill in the blank) or invest for retirement?" That said, a credit card balance ringing up 30% can turn into a black hole if not paid off quickly. Basically, pay off debt at high interest rates and keep debt at low ones.

15. "The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'this time it's different.'" - Sir John Templeton
Follow market trends and history. Don't speculate that this particular time will be any different. For example, a major key to investing in a particular stock or bond fund is its performance over five years. Nothing shorter.

16. "Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing." - Warren Buffett
In the beginning, diversification is relevant. Once you've gotten your feet wet and have confidence in your investments, you can adjust your portfolio accordingly and make bigger bets. (For more reason to reduce your diversification, read The Dangers Of Over-Diversifying Your Portfolio.)

17. "You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don't understand that's going to happen, then you're not ready, you won't do well in the markets." - Peter Lynch
When hit with recessions or declines, you must stay the course. Economies are cyclical, and the markets have shown that they will recover. Make sure you are a part of those recoveries!

The Bottom Line
The world of investing can be cold and hard. But if you do thorough research and keep your head on straight, your chances of long-term success are good. Refer back to these quotes when you're feeling shaky or are confused about investing. How are they relevant to your experience? Do you have any favorite quotes to add? (To learn more from great investors, read Greatest Investors.)

(source: http://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0511/the-top-17-investing-quotes-of-all-time.aspx) 

Quotes number 1,3, 4, 11, 13, 16 are my favourites

notes : Sori penulis udah 2-3 bulan off nih.. 
Penulis akan berusaha untuk UPDATE blog ini minimal 4x dalam 1 bulan

Stay tuned and stay rational..

Subscribe this blog and spread it if u find useful.

Shendy lukito

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LPCK short notes

LPCK short updates based on LK 2013 

Current landbank 670 ha consist of  
291 ha residential @5jt/m2 
379ha industrial @2jt/m2 
Plot ratio 60% 
Shares outstanding 696jt dibuletin 700jt  

Quick NAV -> Rp18.968 / shares
Fair value 30% disc -> Rp 13.278/shares reflecting PE15x PBV5x FY2013  

Shendy Lukito 
Saham101.com

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I WILL PUBLISH A BOOK in 2014

dear readers,

thx's for coming to my blog
This year 2014 i will fulfill one of my dreams , which is WRITING and PUBLISHING a BOOK!

for that reason i need your blessing... and also.. i want to know..

1) Apa sih buku yang kalian butuhkan untuk belajar saham?
2) What topic is interesting for you guys?
3) Apa sih yang kalian suka dari saham101?

komentar anda sangat dibutuhkan untuk membantu untuk meningkatkan kualitas buku dan juga website saham101.com

nb:
penulis bakal berusaha untuk update artikel di saham101 sesering penulis..
dan juga penulis aktif di website www.stockbit.com
Anda dapat melihat tulisan penulis di sana dan don't forget to follow :)

thx's guys

stay tuned and stay rational
Shendy Lukito

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Mengenal Value investing

It is difficult to be optimistic in recessionary times. 

However "When investing, pessimism is your friend, euphoria the enemy

(taken from Books "Buffett Beyond value - Prem Jain")

Apa sih Value investing?

Mungkin ada baiknya penulis jelaskan dengan gambar/perumpamaan.

this illustration made by Yolanda Lesmana , see team member saham101.com

gambar di atas adalah

Contoh value investing yang simple dalam kehidupan sehari2 :

KONSEP 1 -->  Luna Panu case

Apabila kita masuk kuliah, dan apabila kita single, tentu kita akan melihat lihat banyak sekali wanita cantik di kampus (saham2 baik  di BEI)

Nah sayangnya kebanyakan para wanita cantik (saham2 baik) ini diperebutkan bukan hanya oleh kita (investor), namun banyak orang (Fund manager, investor besar, dana pensiun, dll) yang memperebutkan wanita cantik ini.. sehingga seringkali wanita ini secara sengaja atau tidak sengaja ter-JUAL MAHAL (misalnya PE 40x) Dan juga seringkali wanita cantik ini sudah punya pasangan.

Nah apa hubungannya sama VALUE INVESTING ?

Value investing sama seperti kita mengincar wanita cantik..

Kita tunggu sampai wanita cantik ini (didiskon) alias misal baru putus ama pacarnya ato ga si wanita ini kena penyakit "panu" terus tiba2 diputusin ama pacarnya karena pacarnya alergi "panu"..
(temporary problem dengan sahamnya/ bursa jatuh)

Nah di sinilah kita akan masuk dan mendekati wanita ini.. (BUY)

Inilah konsep sederhana dari value investing 

KONSEP 2 --> Betty la Fonte case

Pernah nonton Betty La Fonte (betty la Fea yang bener hehe)?

Wanita yang pada aslinya cantik sekali.. namun terlihat jelek dan tidak disukai oleh orang2 sekitar karena penampilannya jelek sekali.. rambut di bob tidak diurus pake kacamata jelek dan juga gigit dikawat, wahh pokonya jelek sekali.. haha..

Namun ada pria (investor) yang menyadari bahwa sebenernya si Betty (emiten ber FA ciamik) ini cantik dan sedikit demi sedikit Betty (Laporan keuangan mulai membaik) pun merubah penampilan dan sekitar dia (investor lain, fund manager, dana pensiun, etc) mulai mengetahui kalau Betty ini cantik :D

Ketika kita jadi pria yang menyadari Betty ketika masi jelek dan menjadikan betty pasangan , kita telah melakukan value investing (LOL)

Apabila Anda mengerti perumpamaan di atas.. 

Selamat!! Berarti anda secara tidak langsung sudah mengerti esensi dari value investing.

Nah prinsip yang sama dapat kita terapkan dalam membeli sebuah saham.

Mencari saham-saham yang baik

Menunggu harganya didiskon dengan besar

Membeli ketika semua orang tidak menginginkan

Menjual ketika semua orang mengiginkan

Namun memang setelah membeli saham baik dengan diskon yang besar , tidak selalunya dalam waktu dekat (kurang dari 1 tahun) harganya akan berkembang 50-100% atau lebih..

Terkadang butuh beberapa tahun sampai pasar menghargai saham tersebut dengan baik.

Terkadang kurang dari setahun pun pasar sudah menghargai saham tersebut dengan baik.

Well .. ini hanya kulit luar dari intisari investasi yang membuat Warren Buffet menjadi orang  no 1 di dunia. "VALUE INVESTING"

Tidak ada cara instant untuk menjadi kaya, tidak ada cara mudah juga untuk memahami "value investing" PERLU WAKTU , PERLU PEMAHAMAN dan DIPERLUKAN MENTAL yang kuat dalam menjalankan "value investing" karena Anda akan menjadi seperti bebek ungu (bebek yang berbeda dari bebek pada umumnya)

Penulis telah menuliskan step by step yang harus dilakukan dalam mencari "saham mutiara". Dapat dibaca di  sini :

4 puzzle guidelines of Value investing!!

Just when u like and know the 

1# business is great

2# management well.. 

3# the numbers are great.. and 

4# sell way below their intrinsic value.. 

BUY!

last but not least..
the untold true story of the writer saham101 (haelahh) :D

saya selain sebagai investor
saya adalah seorang pedagang di sebuah pasar..

dahulu kios pertama kali dipasarkan 40jt/m2 di tahun 2002.
setelah berjalan 3-5 tahun.. pasar tak kunjung ramai..
developer pun terpaksa menurunkan harga jual mereka..
sampai2 hanya belasan juta rupiah saja/m2..

ga ada yang berani beli pada saat itu..

waktu berlalu..
Lambat laun ada pedagang besar yang mulai berani membeli kios-kios murah tersebut karena mencium adanya peluang.. dan tak lama pun seluruh kios habis terjual.
Dan waktu pun berlalu 5 tahun kemudian pada saat ini 2013.. kios di pasar tersebut sudah bernilai 100jt/m2.. dan itu pun susah barang, jika kita berandai2, kita membeli pada saat orang beramai2 beli.. sudah tentulah return kita tidak akan spektakuler :)

notes :
untung orang tua saya entah ada keberanian ato kebijaksanaan apa membeli pada saat harga kisaran belasan juta tersebut :)

return tidak spektakuler bagaimana sih..
namun cukup memberi saya dan anak2nya pelajaran berharga.
#value investing#

Stay tuned and stay rational..

Subscribe this blog and spread it if u find useful.

Shendy lukito

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