3RD PUZZLE : NUMBERS (Part 4 of 5)

3RD PUZZLE : NUMBERS (Part 4 of 5)
Nah kita masuk ke bagian segi quantitative...Numbers..

Bagi yang belum baca artikel sebelumnya, ada baiknya dibaca karena nyambung (this is part 4 of 5)

SEKILAS.. kalo kita liat gambar di samping.. 
keliatan ya.. mana perusahaan baik dan mana perusahaan yang tidak baik.

Kiri : Good
Kanan : Bad


PENTING SEKALI!! 

2 kata kunci kalau kita melihat NUMBERS which is CONSISTENCY and GROWING
CONSISTENCY : hindari perusahaan yang angin2an, taun ini untung taun depan BUNTUNG taun depan ngulang lagi untung, taun depannya buntung lagi.. capee dehh

GROWING : nah.. tentu ga asik kan kalo kita invest di perusahaan yang udah mature ato apalagi declining.. pilih perusahaan yang menunjukkan performa yang menanjak tiap taunnya.

kl kita pake analogi :
Masa kita mau nikahin pacar (saham) yang ngga konsisten cinta ama kita (ngga konsisten profitnya), dan juga cintanya udah maximal (alias kgk growing ato malah declining) 
#cape deh kalo gini..

Banyak hal yang musti di cek, tapi ini versi saya secara general

1. Revenue growth > 15% , makin besar makin baik
2. Eps growth  > 15%, makin besar makin baik
3. Cash flow growth > 15%, makin besar makin baik
4. Net profit margin > 10% , makin besar makin baik
5. ROE > 20%
6. DER maximal 2, below 1 is better (kecuali banking and perusahaan pembiayaan)
7. Dividend payout ratio 0-50% (terlalu tinggi malah jadi pertanyaan , ga niat tumbuh perusahaannya)
8. Positive Free cash Flow (kl net profit mantap tapi cash flow negative, terlihat dari luar seperti orang sehat tapi dalemnya sakit)

notes for banking :

ada ratio2 khusus yang perlu diperhatikan dalam banking seperti NIM, NPL, CAR, etc..

but we'll discuss it some other time..

anyway here's sample analysis for BBRI using 4 puzzles analysis 

Analisa BRI - 25 august 2013

By : Shendy Lukito

Current price 6650

Market share performance. (JCI vs BBRI)

1 year 0.17% vs -8.9%

5 year 96.64% vs 127.35%

Business outlook (what the company do to make a profit?) And does it have a durable competitive advantage among it peers?

Banking that focus on SME (small medium enterprise UKM)

Yap.. I believe BBRI have a durable competitive advantage among it peers. (See the numbers below)

Who's running the management?

Is the management alligned with shareholders interest?

Presdir : Sofyan basir (2005)

Preskom : bunasir Salim (2005)

Dividend konsisten and stabil

BUMN.

I think Bri has a solid management team.

Numbers and growth

ROA (TTM). 3.66% (5 year average 3.22%)

ROE (TTM) 32.61% (5 year average 32.83%)

It's the most profitable banking in the industry

it's proof something that BBRI has some kind of durable competitive advantage among it peers.

Growth 1y, 3y, 5y *(average growth)

Sales 3% , 11.98%, 16,38%

Eps 24.97%, 37.69%, 31.58%

Div 74.59% , 4.4% , 7.16%

2008 - 2012 , growth CAGR

Total Asset 17.5%

Total equity 23.5%

Total debt 16.75%

Kesimpulan numbers and growth :

BRI unbeliavably strong in terms of profitability and growth. One of most profitable banking company among it peers. (BBCA, BBNI, BMRI)

Valuation :

Using simple PE and mizrahi

Growth : 10% , DPR 30% , diskonto : 15%

Mizrahi konservatif : 9090 / shares

Simple PE median 5 years average 10.72x = 9176

Growth 15% , DPR 30%, diskonto : 15%

Mizrahi moderat : 11.748/shares

Simple PE last high 5 years 12.82x = 10.973 / shares

RATING : OUTPERFORM

TP : 9090 - 11.748

Bagi yang belum baca artikel sebelumnya, ada baiknya dibaca karena nyambung (this is part 4 of 5)

PART 1 - GLIMPSE OF 4 PUZZLE ANALYSIS

PART 2 - BUSINESS

PART 3 - MANAGEMENT

PART 4 - NUMBERS

PART 5 - VALUATION

notes : 

PART 1-2 bahas segi qualitative

PART 3-4 bahs segi quantitative

Stay tuned

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Shendy Lukito

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